Feeling Out of Control? A Nobel Winner's Tips to Our AI-Era Permacrisis
Weekend essay on the book “Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World” by Gordon Brown, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Michael Spence with Reid Lidow
Do You Feel Like Your Job Lacks Security?
Are you worried that your skills are becoming obsolete?
Are you concerned that the money in your pocket is becoming worthless?
Do you feel small, unable to change the social status quo?
Are you worried that your children will face an even more difficult world in the future?
Have you been feeling a sense of "out of control" from time to time in the past 1-2 years, as if being pushed around by an external force?
If your answer is Yes. Don't worry, you're not the only one.
This book co-authored by three accomplished authors, "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World," (Gordon Brown, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Michael Spence, 2023) is a policy book for business leaders, academics, and politicians. While it may not give individuals direct answers as a self-help guide, it might help you and me "understand" what’s happening to our lives.
First, Why Does Everything Feel Like It's Falling Apart?
This isn't your delusion, nor is it your incompetence. Our world is undergoing structural changes. Terms like "the East rising and the West declining", "great changes unseen in a century", and "Make America Great Again" are all specific manifestations of this. You should know that this isn't just cyclical fluctuation, but rather a structural transformation. What we feel personally is actually a microcosm of global systematic problems.
The book proposes three fundamental shifts:
The end of American hegemony — leading the world from unipolar to multipolar
Politics taking priority over economics — leading globally from neoliberalism to new nationalism
Risk management prioritized over efficiency optimization — leading capital from hyper-globalization to managed globalization-lite
These transformations have brought us into a new norm of "permacrisis," but for individuals, this crisis feeling could be the outcome of being online 24/7, cameras in every corner of the globe capturing every incident, and endless content amplified through generative AI on social media.
As the authors put it:
"Don't let the perma prefix fool you; there's nothing permanent about a permacrisis."
Throughout history, humanity has advanced civilization and technology in a cyclical pattern. However when crises arise, humanity always manage to unite at critical moments to solve the problems.
Particularly for people of Gen Y and younger generations, because human’s feelings are subjective and often stem from personal experience and memory. The relative stability and growth of the past 30 years is actually "abnormal" in the long timespan of human history. The instability we are witnessing today is actually a mean-reversion to historical normalcy.
Whether you live in China, the US, Europe or any other countries, talk to the elders, they will tell you that decade-long periods of peace with stable economic growth are indeed rare from their experience.
So, What Can Individuals Learn From This Policy Book?
Actively embrace change, value "new things," and maintain lifelong learning habits — Do you know anyone around you who aren't old yet but don't know how to operate ordinary household appliances, or even use basic phone functions? Try not to decay like them. Actively adapt to change, simply because returning to past states is an unrealistic fantasy.
From an investment and financial perspective, the book mentions structural changes to a supply-constrained economy, meaning higher long-term inflation (Note: This especially targets the US with its high trade deficit; China is relatively better off due to its over-supply economic structure). Diversify investments in "assets" with long-term intrinsic value, deal “bubbles” cautiously and with rationality, and practice sound risk management to ensure peace of mind during uncertain times.
In daily life, avoid making impulsive decisions based on what you see while scrolling through the feed (as some of the content are meant to trigger emotional responses through your “System 1”), and try not to be overly anxious either with your “System 2”. Following the principle of "naming is managing", by acknowledging our current state as a "permacrisis," policymakers would have already begun studying and working to manage this situation.
Become a long-term optimist. If you're a parent, you can explain the current situation to your children like this:
"Dear kids, we adults messed up the world, but we're working hard to fix it. We might not succeed immediately, but we'll keep trying. This is the best gift our generation can give you: not a perfect world, but the human spirit of never giving up."
P.S.
I was fortunate to attend a lecture today by Professor Spence, one of the book's authors and Nobel Prize winner in Economics, at Peking University.
During the Q&A session, one of the questions perfectly echoed my own concerns as a new father of a 2-week old.
"I have a three-year-old daughter, and I need to balance busy work with parenting responsibilities," she said.
"In this AI era, how should I help my child better adapt? Could you give me some advice, preferably simple—something that can be explained in one sentence?"
The entire audience burst into spontaneous applause, as if this mother had spoken everyone’s mind — people want simple answers to navigate the complexity.
Professor Spence wasn't surprised by the question. He answered by addressing the overwhelming AI coverage in social media, where outlets compete for attention and traffic. He emphasized a crucial point: parents should act as information gatekeepers, ensuring children access valuable information from reliable sources rather than letting them use social media unrestricted. This, he added, is both a parental responsibility and a crucial task for all countries in governing AI and internet space.
Since it was the day of national college entrance examination for all Chinese students in the whole country, Professor Huang Yiping, the host, followed up:
"What advice do you have for today's exam students regarding selecting a major for university? Is studying economics still useful in the AI era?"
"Never choose economics!" Professor Spence quipped, drawing laughs. Then, turning serious, he noted that while many parents are steering their children toward AI and computer science majors, this isn't necessarily ideal. He emphasized a fundamental truth: discovering each child's unique interests and allowing them to make authentic choices about their majors—choices that will give them the inner motive and fulfillment to "wake up from bed every day". In terms of learning AI technology specifically, he compared AI’s societal impact to that of the printing press, explaining that as a General Purpose Technology, AI will have impact across the board. And that individual success lies in finding the intersection between one's chosen discipline and AI.
After the group photo session, I quickly made my way to the front row to get Professor Spence's autograph which I'm sharing with everyone now, as it might actually give a simple one-sentence answer to that mother's question:
"Don't Panic."
